The headline figures
Portugal’s statistics office (INE) published its second-quarter numbers on 22 September. Here is what they say.
| Second quarter 2026, INE | |
|---|---|
| Dwellings sold | 40,142 |
| Annual change in transactions | -6.4% |
| Change vs Q1 2026 | +6.4% |
| House price index, annual | +16.5% |
| Existing homes, annual | +18.0% |
| New homes, annual | +12.3% |
| Total value of transactions | €10.7bn (+4.2%) |
A comedown from a record, not a crash
Some perspective first. 2025 was the strongest year on record: 169,812 homes sold, up 8.6%, worth €41.2 billion. The second quarter’s fall comes off that peak. And against the first quarter, activity actually recovered 6.4%. This is a market catching its breath after a frenzy, not a market in trouble.
€10.7 billion still changed hands between April and June, up 4.2% on last year. The money hasn’t left. It’s just moving more carefully.
Foreign buyers are retreating fastest
Purchases by buyers living abroad fell 10.3% to 1,890, a sharper pullback than domestic buyers, down 6.2% to 38,252. If you’re buying from outside Portugal, that means fewer rival bidders at the table than a year ago.
Where the slowdown bites hardest
Every region sold fewer homes. The sharpest falls were in Madeira (-15.2%) and the Algarve (-12.4%). The mildest were in Alentejo (-0.8%) and the Setúbal Peninsula (-2.1%). Four out of five sales were existing homes: 32,307 of them, down 6.6%.
What this means if you’re buying
Three honest takeaways. First, asking prices and selling prices are drifting apart. Idealista’s €3,228 per square metre is what sellers hope for. INE’s transaction data is what buyers actually pay. The space between the two is your negotiation room, and it’s widening.
Second, time is on your side. When volumes fall, listings go stale, and stale listings are where sellers compromise. A home that sat through the summer at a record asking price is a different negotiation in October.
Third, don’t mistake cooling for cheap. Prices are still rising fast: 16.5% on INE’s index, 18% for existing homes. Nobody is getting a fire sale. The opportunity is in the negotiation, not in waiting for a crash the data doesn’t show.
Three questions to ask before you sign
How long has it been on the market?
In a cooling market, days on market are leverage. Fresh listings at record prices have no reason to move. Stale ones do.
What did homes on this street actually sell for?
Ask for parish transaction medians, not listing prices. The registry doesn’t do hope.
Why is the seller selling?
Relocation, divorce, inheritance, a stalled flip. Motivation is the oldest discount in the book, and it matters more when buyers are scarce.
Sources
- INE, House Price Index Q2 2026 (published 22 September 2026), via Global Property Guide and Portugal Homes
- Idealista price index, September 2026: our read on the asking-price record