The headline figures
September’s Idealista index, published this week, is the one the whole market watches. Here is what it says.
| September 2026, Idealista index | |
|---|---|
| Annual change in asking prices | +7.9% |
| Monthly change | +0.6% |
| National median asking price | €3,228/m² |
| Most expensive city (Lisbon) | €6,256/m² |
| Costliest region (Lisbon region) | €4,501/m² |
It’s not Lisbon driving this
The fastest growth is not in the capital. It’s in the district capitals most foreign buyers couldn’t place on a map: Vila Real (+17.8%), Leiria (+17.6%), Beja (+14.4%), Faro (+14.3%) and Guarda (+14.0%). The Centre region is the fastest-growing part of the country.
Lisbon, meanwhile, grew 4.4%, the slowest of the major markets, and less than half the pace of Porto (+9.0%). The capital remains by far the most expensive place to buy, at €6,256 per square metre. It is simply no longer where the momentum is.
Don’t mistake 4.4% for calm. On €6,256 a square metre, that’s about €275 more per square metre in a year, roughly €33,000 on a 120m² apartment.
Portugal against Europe
Eurostat’s second-quarter figures, published the same week, put Portugal top of the EU table: house prices up 16.5% year-on-year, ahead of Bulgaria (+15.5%) and Lithuania (+14.3%). The EU average was 4.7%, the euro area 4.0%. Portugal isn’t just rising. It’s rising more than three times as fast as Europe as a whole.
What this means if you’re buying
Three honest takeaways. First, these are asking prices, not transaction prices. A record in asking data tells you sellers are confident. It doesn’t tell you what homes actually change hands for. The gap between the two is where a buyer’s agent earns their fee.
Second, the interior is catching up. Double-digit annual growth in Vila Real, Guarda and Beja means the “cheap Portugal” of five years ago is repricing fast. If value was your thesis, the window is narrowing, but in absolute euros, these markets are still a fraction of Lisbon.
Third, Lisbon at 4.4% is a calmer prime market, not a falling one. On the country’s highest base, even modest percentages are serious money. Nobody buying in Lisbon is getting a discount from this data.
Three questions to ask before you sign
Is this the asking price or the transacted price?
Ask for actual transaction medians for the parish, not the listing. Sellers price on hope; the registry prices on fact.
How long has it been sitting?
In a rising market, stale listings are where negotiation lives. Fresh stock at record prices has no reason to move.
What does the price per square metre say?
Lisbon’s median is €6,256/m². Prime streets run far above it. Know which side of the median you’re buying on before you fall in love with the terrace.
Sources
- Idealista price index, September 2026, via IndexBox (1 October 2026)
- Eurostat, “House prices and rents continued to rise in Q2 2026” (1 October 2026): ec.europa.eu
- Eurostat euro-indicators, Q2 2026 house price data: ec.europa.eu