The number that counts: what homes actually sold for
Portugal’s statistics office, INE, builds its local price series from tax records, so these are completed sales, not advertisements. The latest release, published 23 October 2026, puts the Cascais median at €5,200 per square metre for the second quarter of 2026. Only Lisbon sits above it among the country’s large municipalities.
| Median sale price per m², INE | Q2 2026 | Year to June 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Cascais | 5,200 | 4,889 |
| Lisbon | 5,299 | 5,192 |
| Oeiras | 4,704 | 4,438 |
| Grande Lisboa | 4,030 | 3,757 |
| Portugal | 2,445 | 2,264 |
Read the two columns differently. The single quarter is the freshest snapshot and the jumpier one. The twelve-month column is the steadier measure, and on that basis Cascais sits at €4,889 a square metre, within sight of Lisbon and far clear of the national figure, which is under half the Cascais level. Both columns are still rising fast: the Grande Lisboa quarterly median is up 18.4% on the year, and so is the national one. Sintra’s medians appear only in INE’s charts, so it has no row here, but its market is the volume story next door: 5,934 sales in the twelve months, second only to Lisbon’s 7,739.
Inside the Cascais number
The detail behind the median matters more than the median. On the twelve-month figures to June 2026, new homes in Cascais sold at a median of €5,260 per square metre, second in the country only to Lisbon, at €6,434. Homes with four bedrooms or more sold at €5,063 per square metre, the highest figure of any large municipality in Portugal, Lisbon included. Family houses are the expensive end of this market, not a soft one.
Buyers whose tax home is abroad also pay more: On the twelve-month figures, INE puts the Cascais median for buyers domiciled abroad above €4,350 per square metre, against above €3,500 for buyers domiciled in Portugal. Across Grande Lisboa in the second quarter the gap is wider still: a median of €5,878 for buyers domiciled abroad against €4,000 for domestic buyers, a premium of 47%. That is not a foreigner tax. It is a mix effect. International buyers concentrate on the coast, on new builds and on the larger homes, and the median follows them.
A median is the middle sale, not the price of the house you are looking at. Prime streets in Cascais and Estoril trade far above €5,000 a metre, and parts of São Domingos de Rana trade well below it. Use the median to judge whether a specific asking price is sane, never as the price itself.
The bank’s number: what your mortgage thinks it is worth
Every mortgage in Portugal runs through a bank appraisal, and INE surveys those appraisals monthly. In August 2026 the national median appraisal was €2,254 per square metre, up 14.7% on the year. Grande Lisboa appraisals sit about half as high again as the national figure: apartments at €3,487 per square metre, houses at €2,918.
Notice the gap. Appraisals run conservative against sale prices, because the bank is protecting its loan, not describing the market. If you are buying with a mortgage, this is the number that decides how much the bank will lend against the home, and a low appraisal is one of the most common reasons a purchase needs renegotiating. Our guide to mortgages for foreign buyers explains how the lending side handles it.
The advertiser’s number: asking prices
The third number is the one in the headlines. Idealista’s index put Portugal’s median asking price at a record €3,228 per square metre in September 2026, up 7.9% on the year, with the Lisbon metropolitan area at €4,501 and Lisbon city at €6,256. Asking prices are real information about seller confidence. They are not prices anyone has paid.
Put the three side by side for the country and the order never changes: sellers ask the most, tax records show less changing hands, and banks value lower still. A buyer who negotiates from the asking index is negotiating from the seller’s favourite number.
Fewer sales, higher prices
One more figure keeps this honest. In the second quarter of 2026, 37,854 homes changed hands in Portugal, down 9.0% on the year, while the national median sale price rose 18.4%. Across the twelve months to June, 156,713 homes sold. Fewer transactions, higher prices. That is a market where sellers can wait and buyers cannot assume a discount is coming to rescue a stretched budget.
What this means if you are buying in Cascais
Three working rules. First, anchor on the transacted median for the municipality, then adjust for the street, the size and the condition. It is the only one of the three numbers that records money actually paid.
Second, if a mortgage is involved, model the bank’s appraisal, not the sale price, when you work out your cash. The difference between the two is money you may have to find at short notice.
Third, do not wait for Cascais to get cheaper on the strength of falling sales volumes. Volumes fell across the country while prices rose. In this town, the scarce thing is not buyers. It is houses worth buying.
Three questions to ask before you offer
Which number is this price based on?
If the answer is the asking index or a neighbour’s listing, you are looking at hope, not evidence. Ask for completed sales in the same street or parish.
What will the bank say it is worth?
An appraisal below the price is common in Cascais. Know before you sign the CPCV whether you can cover the gap in cash.
Is this above or below the median, and why?
Above the median can be right for a renovated house on a prime street. It needs a reason you can say out loud, in euros, per square metre.
Sources
- INE, “Estatísticas de Preços da Habitação ao nível local”, 23 October 2026: ine.pt
- INE, “Inquérito à Avaliação Bancária na Habitação”, August 2026 (24 September 2026): ine.pt
- Idealista price index, September 2026 (1 October 2026): idealista via Cision
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